In this report, we co-develop adaptation scenario narratives together with local stakeholders for critical areas within four Iconic cities, using high-resolution maps. Adaptation measures are then remodelled to evaluate their effectiveness on the ground.

Keeping warming below 1.5C by the end of the century now likely involves “overshooting” 1.5C and then bringing temperatures back down later by removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. This policy brief details the consequences of overshoot as well as recommendations to peak warming in addition to long-term decline. A version of this deliverable has been published for wide dissemination at the portal “Carbon Brief”.

Recent findings from the PROVIDE project show that overshooting 1.5° C results in high uncertainty when it comes to warming outcomes, climate impacts and associated risks. This policy brief outlines current understandings (or lack thereof) of overshoot scenarios, potential irreversible impacts, and the use of “peak and decline” scenarios to consider a wide range of plausible outcomes. A version of this deliverable has been published for wide dissemination at the portal “Carbon Brief”.

This report outlines how the concept of limits to adaptation can be integrated into plans of the sector of infrastructure.

This report outlines how the concept of limits to adaptation can be integrated into plans of the sector of agriculture.

This report presents the updated version of the Overshoot Proofing Methodology and outlines why and when it is relevant to consider overshoot scenarios in adaptation planning.

Four Overshoot Proofing reports for Iconic Regions and Cities

We need to peak emissions before 2025 on the way to roughly halving GHG emissions by 2030 to minimise the risk of overshooting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. However, current policies and pledged Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are inadequate achieve any of these milestone. Urgent and stringent action is needed.

A method to analyze the global warming implications of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and other long-term emissions reduction targets is described. In addition, a method to understand the potential Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) consequences of the implied emissions pathways is presented.

Policy brief on PROVIDE findings of adaptation and mitigation implications of overshoot risks as input into the Global Stocktake

Four review reports on key overshoot adaptation challenges in Iconic Regions and Cities

Providing information on few variables with global coverage (Climate Analytics)

This report describes the complete set of communication materials and tools, including the public website (V 1.0). The tools will support the communication activities to raise the awareness in the general public, to reach out beyond the main stakeholder groups of the project and widely distribute project results to different target audiences.