The PROVIDE Climate Risk Dashboard
Overshooting the Paris Agreement temperature thresholds is a distinct possibility. Overshoot scenarios are defined by the IPCC Glossary as pathways that exceed the stabilization level (concentration, forcing, or temperature) before the end of a time horizon of interest (e.g., before 2100) and then decline towards that level by that time. Once the target level is exceeded, removal by sinks of greenhouse gases is required.
The PROVIDE Climate Risk Dashboard is an online platform providing detailed information on overshoot scenarios and expected impacts and their reversibility, with unique sectoral coverage including extreme events, biodiversity, cryosphere, sea level rise, agriculture, economic damages, socio-economic vulnerabilities among others. The information includes global, national and city level modelling results. The design and the presentation of the data is currently co-developed together with stakeholders.
An overshoot proofing module for adaptation planning will be made available for adaptation planners. The Overshoot Proofing Methodology is co-developed together with a diverse group of stakeholders within the PROVIDE project.
Version 1 of the Dashboard was launched in January 2024 and will be further developed until project end.
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About the Project
The 1.5°C Paris Agreement temperature goal provides the benchmark for global climate action to avoid the most devastating impacts of climate change. However, under current trajectories, overshooting (meaning the temporary exceedance of 1.5°C) the Paris temperature thresholds is a distinct possibility. The impacts of such overshoot scenarios would be particularly consequential for vulnerable regions and systems. Here, even in the case of only a temporary exceedance of 1.5°C, thresholds of abrupt and possibly irreversible shifts or adaptation limits may be exceeded. The PROVIDE project aims to deliver information on overshoot scenarios and respective impacts in the context of adaptation through an innovative web tool. You will be able to assess the risks of overshooting systemic thresholds (e.g. glacier melt) from the local to the global level. Moving beyond a limited set of climate scenarios, the PROVIDE approach allows you to make thresholds the starting point for the analysis and adaptation planning.
Latest News
D4.3 Co-developed iconic overshoot adaptation scenario narratives and high-resolution maps
In this report, we co-develop adaptation scenario narratives together with local stakeholders for critical areas within four Iconic cities, using high-resolution maps. Adaptation measures are then remodelled to evaluate their effectiveness on the ground.
D6.4 Policy brief on climate and sectoral overshoot impacts and reversibility assessments, and implications for adaptation
Keeping warming below 1.5C by the end of the century now likely involves “overshooting” 1.5C and then bringing temperatures back down later by removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. This policy brief details the consequences of overshoot as well as recommendations to peak warming in addition to long-term decline. A version of this deliverable has been published for wide dissemination at the portal “Carbon Brief”.
D3.6 Policy brief on Overshoot Proofing
Recent findings from the PROVIDE project show that overshooting 1.5° C results in high uncertainty when it comes to warming outcomes, climate impacts and associated risks. This policy brief outlines current understandings (or lack thereof) of overshoot scenarios, potential irreversible impacts, and the use of “peak and decline” scenarios to consider a wide range of plausible outcomes. A version of this deliverable has been published for wide dissemination at the portal “Carbon Brief”.