Paris Agreement Overshooting
Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs
Innovative Climate Services
Assessing the risks of exceeding adaptation limits
Overshoot Proofing of Adaptation strategies
Assessing the need on EU level and in four Iconic regions
The PROVIDE Climate Risk Dashboard
Overshooting the Paris Agreement temperature thresholds is a distinct possibility. Overshoot scenarios are defined by the IPCC Glossary as pathways that exceed the stabilization level (concentration, forcing, or temperature) before the end of a time horizon of interest (e.g., before 2100) and then decline towards that level by that time. Once the target level is exceeded, removal by sinks of greenhouse gases is required.
The PROVIDE Climate Risk Dashboard is an online platform providing detailed information on overshoot scenarios and expected impacts and their reversibility, with unique sectoral coverage including extreme events, biodiversity, cryosphere, sea level rise, agriculture, economic damages, socio-economic vulnerabilities among others. The information includes global, national and city level modelling results. The design and the presentation of the data is currently co-developed together with stakeholders.
An overshoot proofing module for adaptation planning will be made available for adaptation planners. The Overshoot Proofing Methodology is co-developed together with a diverse group of stakeholders within the PROVIDE project.
A beta version of the PROVIDE Dashboard has been launched in October 2022 and will be further developed within the project duration.
About the Project
The 1.5°C Paris Agreement temperature goal provides the benchmark for global climate action to avoid the most devastating impacts of climate change. However, under current trajectories, overshooting (meaning the temporary exceedance of 1.5°C) the Paris temperature thresholds is a distinct possibility. The impacts of such overshoot scenarios would be particularly consequential for vulnerable regions and systems. Here, even in the case of only a temporary exceedance of 1.5°C, thresholds of abrupt and possibly irreversible shifts or adaptation limits may be exceeded. The PROVIDE project aims to deliver information on overshoot scenarios and respective impacts in the context of adaptation through an innovative web tool. You will be able to assess the risks of overshooting systemic thresholds (e.g. glacier melt) from the local to the global level. Moving beyond a limited set of climate scenarios, the PROVIDE approach allows you to make thresholds the starting point for the analysis and adaptation planning.
PROVIDE successfully hosted a webinar on 8th September 2023, looking at climate overshoot. It featured presentations and expert discussion on what the latest science suggests overshoot of 1.5°C could look like, what the implications are for our planet and societies, and how this should inform climate action today.
Climate action is accelerating, but greenhouse gas emissions are yet to peak. This webinar is looking at climate overshoot, will feature presentations and expert discussion on what the latest science suggests overshoot of 1.5°C could look like, what the implications are for our planet and societies, and how this should inform climate action today.
An in-person workshop for EU level policy makers will be held in Brussels on 6 September 2023 to share knowledge on overshoot in the context of adaptation, explore the PROVIDE Overshoot Proofing Methodology, and introduce the Climate Risk Dashboard. Consortium members will be in attendance to lead discussion and take up feedback. If you have interest, or know someone who may be appropriate for these conversations.