Paris Agreement Over­shooting

Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs

Innovative Climate Services

Assessing the risks of exceeding adaptation limits

Overshoot Proofing of Adaptation strategies

Assessing the need on EU level and in four Iconic regions

The PROVIDE Climate Risk Dashboard

Overshooting the Paris Agreement temperature thresholds is a distinct possibility. Overshoot scenarios are defined by the IPCC Glossary as pathways that exceed the stabilization level (concentration, forcing, or temperature) before the end of a time horizon of interest (e.g., before 2100) and then decline towards that level by that time. Once the target level is exceeded, removal by sinks of greenhouse gases is required.

The PROVIDE Climate Risk Dashboard is an online platform providing detailed information on overshoot scenarios and expected impacts and their reversibility, with unique sectoral coverage including extreme events, biodiversity, cryosphere, sea level rise, agriculture, economic damages, socio-economic vulnerabilities among others. The information includes global, national and city level modelling results. The design and the presentation of the data is currently co-developed together with stakeholders.

An overshoot proofing module for adaptation planning will be made available for adaptation planners. The Overshoot Proofing Methodology is co-developed together with a diverse group of stakeholders within the PROVIDE project.

Version 1 of the Dashboard was launched in January 2024 and will be further developed until project end.


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About the Project

The 1.5°C Paris Agreement temperature goal provides the benchmark for global climate action to avoid the most devastating impacts of climate change. However, under current trajectories, overshooting (meaning the temporary exceedance of 1.5°C) the Paris temperature thresholds is a distinct possibility. The impacts of such overshoot scenarios would be particularly consequential for vulnerable regions and systems. Here, even in the case of only a temporary exceedance of 1.5°C, thresholds of abrupt and possibly irreversible shifts or adaptation limits may be exceeded. The PROVIDE project aims to deliver information on overshoot scenarios and respective impacts in the context of adaptation through an innovative web tool. You will be able to assess the risks of overshooting systemic thresholds (e.g. glacier melt) from the local to the global level. Moving beyond a limited set of climate scenarios, the PROVIDE approach allows you to make thresholds the starting point for the analysis and adaptation planning.

About the project
About the project

Latest News

New Dashboard version and demo video available

A new version of the PROVIDE Climate Risk Dashboard has been launched! New data on glacier retreat, biodiversity loss and the impacts of heat stress on people in cities has been added. Explore the tool to find out how the climate crisis could affect you.

PROVIDE Webinar: All that we can save

PROVIDE Webinar: All that we can save

Climate impacts are hitting hard around the world, as communities are struggling to cope with the intensity of flooding, fires and heat. In this webinar, scientists will present new findings on future impacts of climate change we could avoid by reducing our emissions today. There will be a particular focus on heat extremes, species loss, glacier loss and hits to labour productivity. Experts in relevant fields will join a panel discussion to discuss the findings, followed by a Q&A.
3 July 2024, 15:00 – 16:00 CEST

PROVIDE EGU 2024 presentation 18 April

PROVIDE EGU 2024 presentation 18 April

Join the EGU session on 18 April, 08:30–10:15 (CEST), Room F1: Urban climate, urban biometeorology, and science tools for cities. 08:30-08:40 PROVIDE presentation
“A public database of future heat stress in 140 cities to examine the potential for heat reduction via climate-smart urban development”