WP1 Fundamentals of overshoot pathways

Lead Partner: Imperial College London

WP1 establishes an understanding of warming trajectories, net-zero timing and potential overshoot implied by current climate targets under the Paris Agreement and analyses overshoot pathway characteristics with a focus on the large-scale CDR and the pace of temperature reversal. It identifies and delivers an assessment of key uncertainties and risks of overshoot pathways and their components (e.g. risks from higher warming, risks from larger CDR requirement or introduction of SRM risk of impaired reversibility due to climate system uncertainties or feedbacks, risks from uncertain effectiveness of CDR).

D1.1
Policy brief on assessment of GHG emissions implied by the latest round of NDCs under the Paris Agreement, their plausible temperature implications, and CDR deployment scales in associated pathways

WP2 Biophysical Impacts

Lead Partner: ETH Zürich

WP2 provides geographically resolved ensembles projections of overshoot pathways and assesses the associated impacts on physical and biogeochemical systems. It expands and develops new climate and impact emulators translating WP1 overshoot pathways into regional climate projections for a range of climate and (impact) variables, including climate extremes. It thereby achieves the translation of overshoot pathways into regional changes and establishes the relevance of overshoots on the regional level. It further investigates the (ir)reversibility of impacts under overshoot pathways on selected sectoral impacts including glacier and permafrost loss, sea level rise, carbon cycle, ocean biogeochemistry, and terrestrial and marine species and ecosystem changes.

WP3 Overshoot proofing for enhanced adaptation decision making and policy

Lead Partner: Universität Hamburg

WP3 assesses the implications of overshoots for adaptation planning, including the potential spatial and temporal development of relevant dimensions of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in response to the biophysical changes assessed in WP1 and WP2. To this end, WP3 deploys vulnerability and economic modelling approaches at different scales including adaptation costing83. Overshoot proofing of two adaptation strategies on EU level are performed in a co-development process with relevant decision-makers, including scenario planning workshops. Through these case studies WP3 constitutes a testbed and centrally contributes to the co-development of the Overshoot Proofing Module as part of the service provision under WP5. Furthermore, WP3 assesses the mitigation implications of avoiding impact and adaptation thresholds and irreversible risks and provides for an input into the Paris Agreement global stocktake.

D3.2
Policy brief on PROVIDE findings of adaptation and mitigation implications of overshoot risks as input into the Global Stocktake
D3.4
First overshoot proofing reports for sectoral adaptation strategies
D3.5
Second overshoot proofing reports for sectoral adaptation strategies
D3.6
Policy brief on Overshoot Proofing WP3 2 – CA Report Public 33

WP4 Iconic Regions and Cities

Lead Partner: FCiências.ID

WP4 addresses the pertinent impacts of overshoots in four Iconic Regions, building on the assessments in WPs 2 and 3, and additionally focusing on one urban area within each region. High resolution modelling on urban level for climate and economic impacts are carried out. A co-development process for overshoot proofing of at least one adaptation strategy per iconic region (and/or urban area within that region) are performed, including targeted stakeholder workshops. Depending on the context, impactful strategies are developed across different scales from regions to metropolitan areas, corridors, communities, neighborhood. These measures consider urbanisation trends and focus on multisectoral value creation. The outcomes support the development of the Overshoot Proofing Module in WP5 and provide feedback to WP3.

D4.1
Four review reports on key overshoot adaptation challenges in Iconic Regions and Cities

D4.2
Four overshoot proofing reports for Iconic Regions and Cities
D4.3
Co-developed iconic overshoot adaptation scenario narratives and high-resolution maps

WP5 PROVIDE Climate Services Products

Lead Partner: Climate Analytics
WP5 synthesises the outcomes of WP1 and 2 into a Climate Service Dashboard that visualizes the global-to-regional-to-urban scale, multi-sectoral biophysical and economic impacts for a wide range of climate change (including overshoot) scenarios. The Dashboard also features high-resolution downscaled projections for the Upper Indus Basin and a selected number of cities including from the Iconic Regions. The emulator-based, scenarioflexible and multi-sectoral provided information serves as a basis for the co-development overshoot proofing process of existing adaptation plans on EU (WP3) and regional level (WP4). The outcomes of these processes will be synthesised into an online module for overshoot proofing.
D5.1
Version 0 of the CS Dashboard providing information on few
D5.2
Version 1 of the CS Dashboard, providing climate and sectoral impact information as well as a first version of the Regional Module
D5.3
Final version of the CS Dashboard, providing climate and sectoral impact information and reversibility assessments, and the Overshoot Proofing Module
D5.4
Capacity-building resources and webinars on application of climate impact information for overshoot proofing

WP6 Dissemination, Communication & Stakeholder Engagement

Lead Partner: ARTTIC Innovation
WP6 coordinates and supports stakeholder engagement and communication on all levels: it facilitates and fosters all dissemination and communication activities of the project beyond the direct channels to stakeholders already established in WPs 3 to 5. WP6 is also responsible for the uptake and sustainable exploitation of the PROVIDE results.
D6.2
Release of complete set of communication materials and tools, incl. the public website-V 1.0
D6.4
Policy brief on climate and sectoral overshoot impacts and reversibility assessments, and implications for adaptation

WP7 Project coordination and management & data management

Lead Partner: Humboldt-Universität
WP7 covers project governance and the overall coordination and management of the project. It ensures that the consortiums contractual duties are caried out in compliance with EU regulations and sets up effective communication infrastructure within the consortium.