Paris Agreement Overshooting
Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs
Innovative Climate Services
Assessing the risks of exceeding adaptation limits
Overshoot Proofing of Adaptation strategies
Assessing the need on EU level and in four Iconic regions
The PROVIDE Climate Risk Dashboard
Overshooting the Paris Agreement temperature thresholds is a distinct possibility. Overshoot scenarios are defined by the IPCC Glossary as pathways that exceed the stabilization level (concentration, forcing, or temperature) before the end of a time horizon of interest (e.g., before 2100) and then decline towards that level by that time. Once the target level is exceeded, removal by sinks of greenhouse gases is required.
The PROVIDE Climate Risk Dashboard is an online platform providing detailed information on overshoot scenarios and expected impacts and their reversibility, with unique sectoral coverage including extreme events, biodiversity, cryosphere, sea level rise, agriculture, economic damages, socio-economic vulnerabilities among others. The information includes global, national and city level modelling results. The design and the presentation of the data is currently co-developed together with stakeholders.
An overshoot proofing module for adaptation planning will be made available for adaptation planners. The Overshoot Proofing Methodology is co-developed together with a diverse group of stakeholders within the PROVIDE project.
A beta version of the PROVIDE Dashboard has been launched in October 2022 and will be further developed within the project duration.
About the Project
The 1.5°C Paris Agreement temperature goal provides the benchmark for global climate action to avoid the most devastating impacts of climate change. However, under current trajectories, overshooting (meaning the temporary exceedance of 1.5°C) the Paris temperature thresholds is a distinct possibility. The impacts of such overshoot scenarios would be particularly consequential for vulnerable regions and systems. Here, even in the case of only a temporary exceedance of 1.5°C, thresholds of abrupt and possibly irreversible shifts or adaptation limits may be exceeded. The PROVIDE project aims to deliver information on overshoot scenarios and respective impacts in the context of adaptation through an innovative web tool. You will be able to assess the risks of overshooting systemic thresholds (e.g. glacier melt) from the local to the global level. Moving beyond a limited set of climate scenarios, the PROVIDE approach allows you to make thresholds the starting point for the analysis and adaptation planning.
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Temporarily overshooting climate targets is a distinct possibility given our current emissions trajectory. It is crucial that we understand which of the associated impacts are reversible, and to what extent.
(Reversing climate overshoot. Nat. Geosci. 16, 467 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01213-3)
D1.1 Policy brief on assessment of GHG emissions implied by the latest round of NDCs under the Paris Agreement, their plausible temperature implications, and CDR deployment scales in associated pathways
A method to analyze the global warming implications of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and other long-term emissions reduction targets is described. In addition, a method to understand the potential Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) consequences of the implied emissions pathways is presented.