The PROVIDE Climate Risk Dashboard
Overshooting the Paris Agreement temperature thresholds is a distinct possibility. Overshoot scenarios are defined by the IPCC Glossary as pathways that exceed the stabilization level (concentration, forcing, or temperature) before the end of a time horizon of interest (e.g., before 2100) and then decline towards that level by that time. Once the target level is exceeded, removal by sinks of greenhouse gases is required.
The PROVIDE Climate Risk Dashboard is an online platform providing detailed information on overshoot scenarios and expected impacts and their reversibility, with unique sectoral coverage including extreme events, biodiversity, cryosphere, sea level rise, agriculture, economic damages, socio-economic vulnerabilities among others. The information includes global, national and city level modelling results. The design and the presentation of the data is currently co-developed together with stakeholders.
An overshoot proofing module for adaptation planning will be made available for adaptation planners. The Overshoot Proofing Methodology is co-developed together with a diverse group of stakeholders within the PROVIDE project.
A beta version of the PROVIDE Dashboard has been launched in October 2022 and will be further developed within the project duration.
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About the Project
The 1.5°C Paris Agreement temperature goal provides the benchmark for global climate action to avoid the most devastating impacts of climate change. However, under current trajectories, overshooting (meaning the temporary exceedance of 1.5°C) the Paris temperature thresholds is a distinct possibility. The impacts of such overshoot scenarios would be particularly consequential for vulnerable regions and systems. Here, even in the case of only a temporary exceedance of 1.5°C, thresholds of abrupt and possibly irreversible shifts or adaptation limits may be exceeded. The PROVIDE project aims to deliver information on overshoot scenarios and respective impacts in the context of adaptation through an innovative web tool. You will be able to assess the risks of overshooting systemic thresholds (e.g. glacier melt) from the local to the global level. Moving beyond a limited set of climate scenarios, the PROVIDE approach allows you to make thresholds the starting point for the analysis and adaptation planning.
Latest News
COP28 Cryosphere Pavilion: Why Overshoot Pathways Will Leave the Cryosphere Behind
On 8 Dec. 2023, 13:00, the PROVIDE side event at the Cryosphere Pavilion at COP28 will showcase research on policy-relevant climate overshoot scenarios, where temperatures would temporarily exceed 1.5°C before being brought back down below 1.5°C at the end of the century. This explores impacts associated with such trajectories, and if, as emissions descend, impacts could be reversed. Adaptation practitioners and civil society members will join for discussion about what overshoot would mean for the cryosphere, and how that could inform climate action today.
Panelists: Prof. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (Humboldt University Berlin), Dr Fahad Saeed (WCS), Prof. Fabien Maussion (University of Bristol / Innsbruck) and Kaisa Kosonen (Greenpeace)
PROVIDE Webinar Recording: Overshooting 1.5°C: the latest science on the risks and action needed
PROVIDE successfully hosted a webinar on 8th September 2023, looking at climate overshoot. It featured presentations and expert discussion on what the latest science suggests overshoot of 1.5°C could look like, what the implications are for our planet and societies, and how this should inform climate action today.
PROVIDE Webinar: Overshooting 1.5°C: the latest science on the risks and action needed
Climate action is accelerating, but greenhouse gas emissions are yet to peak. This webinar is looking at climate overshoot, will feature presentations and expert discussion on what the latest science suggests overshoot of 1.5°C could look like, what the implications are for our planet and societies, and how this should inform climate action today.